The US says Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after three years of war.
The announcement is a surprising incident that Ukrainian President Voldy Mee Zelensky traveled on March 10, following peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The ball is currently in the Russian courts in terms of whether or not they will accept the ceasefire proposal.
Zelenskyy’s recent cry with President Donald Trump and White House Vice President JD Vance, on a surface level, could not have been any worse from the perspective of Ukrainian leaders. Both Trump and Vance put Zelensky in the attack before their meeting ended abruptly.
The fallout from the meeting initially appeared even worse than the meeting itself. On March 3, Trump suspended material military aid to Ukraine, and two days later the US stopped sharing intelligence with Ukrainians. The decision on the Intelligence News has since been reversed following Ukraine’s agreement with a ceasefire proposal.
(AP Photo/MystySlav Chernov)
Trump needs victory
When campaigning for the president, Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours. After he won a second term, Trump sometimes appeared to be indifferent and even hostile to Russia.
However, the domestic turmoil promoted by many of his policies seems to have sought victory in international affairs. Please enter your Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Trump has had to adapt to Ukrainian leaders in recent weeks, including an oval office attack on Zelensky. Therefore, he has been moving to strengthen support for Ukraine in a world that lacks American leadership.
Read more: Trump and Zelensky: When face-to-face diplomacy fails, it can be miserable – especially when the whole world sees it
Ukraine and Trump fixation
Trump’s focus on Ukraine comes from several aspects of his worldview.
First, the theory that Trump is a Russian agent may be exaggerated, but he appears to be sticking to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This fixation can be attributed to the fact that Putin, like Trump, sees the world tradeably, just like Trump. Putin is someone Trump, who broadcasts himself as a trading maker, can reach an agreement.
(Photo via Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin pool photos)
Second, the Russian-Ukraine conflict coincides with Trump’s worldview, where the US offers too much, and too little for other parts of the world to ensure international stability. This perspective is especially true in Europe, where Trump sees it as a “free load” through American security guarantees.
Third, Trump believes Ukraine may support American industry and defense rather than military methods. The rare earth minerals owned by Ukraine have a large economic and military significance, the market is controlled by the state Trump, and many others consider it to be China, the main rival of the United States.
Fourth and finally, Trump correctly sees the US as leveraging Ukraine. With American military aid, Ukraine is primarily allowed to fight long-term wars with much larger enemies. While Russia’s military and economic degradation benefits the US, Trump’s focus on short-term goals has largely overlooked this.
Read more: Us-Ukraine trade highlights the rich and critical minerals of Ukraine, but extracting them isn’t that simple
Did you have a Zelenskyy Outplay Trump?
However, Trump did not explain the strength of Zelensky’s character. Zelensky is focusing on Ukraine’s interests while Trump is trying to use Ukraine for his own interests. The new conflict of character between both men was almost inevitable for a chaotic, oval office meeting.
Given Trump’s rhetoric towards Zelensky at the front of that meeting, it is interesting that the Ukrainian leaders have completely agreed to the meeting. However, Zelensky reportedly promoted the conference, and French President Emmanuel Macron intervened on his behalf.
American support for Ukraine had disappeared before the turbulent meeting. There has been no new aid for Ukraine since Trump took over the presidency. For Ukraine to survive, it needs new patrons.
Zelenskyy has taken risks during the conflict, but not all of them work in the favor of him or Ukraine. However, these risks are always calculated. His attempts to strengthen support for Ukraine among Ukrainian non-American allies following the controversial White House conference may be an example of this type of calculation.
(Justin Talis/Pool via AP)
Europe gathers around Ukraine
In the aftermath of the conference, the international community gathered around Ukraine. But the most important thing is the European response.
On all the issues in Trump’s approach, he is right that Europe’s response to Russian invasion left many desirable from a Ukrainian perspective. Europe has provided more financial support to Ukraine than the US, but it mainly occurred after the American leadership on the issue.
(AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)
France and the UK have emerged as Ukraine’s biggest backers in Europe. This is nothing new, as both countries have been among Ukraine’s most vocal supporters in the past few years. But what Ukraine needs is that the support of that voice turns into action.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a 800 billion euro programme for European Union members to strengthen their defensive capabilities shortly after Zelensky met with European leaders in London in early March. In her rational explanation, von der Leyen states:
“The device allows member states to significantly enhance their support for Ukraine. This joint procurement approach can also reduce costs, reduce fragmentation, increase interoperability and strengthen the defense industry foundation.”
The EU is important
Although not perfect, new support from the EU and the UK will allow Ukraine to continue the fight as the decline of Russia’s economy hinders Putin’s war efforts.
In the aftermath of Trump’s oval office showdown with Vance, Zelensky has done what he can to repair Ukraine’s relationship with the US and satisfy Trump’s ego, but tensions remain. From a Ukrainian perspective, the war with Russia requires new partners, and the EU can serve that purpose.
The United States may be a country seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine, but it is Europe that plays the most important role in Ukraine’s ability to win the war if it endures.
