Greenland, the world’s largest island, will vote on Tuesday to elect its next parliament and government.
Elections on thin, populous Danish territories usually attract local attention only. But the vote comes when the island explodes geopolitically, and President Donald Trump openly and repeatedly declares his intention to win it.
Technically part of North America, Greenland is rich in mineral resources located halfway between Russia and the US and already hosts US bases.
“I think we’re going to get it. Trump told the US Congress last week in a statement pushed back by the Greenlandic leader.
So who will vote in the election? Which party is the main? What are the key issues driving voters? And what is at stake for Greenland?
Who votes and how does it work?
Of Greenland’s roughly 56,000 people, approximately 41,000 are eligible to vote to elect 31 members of the Greenland Parliament, Inatus faction.
Elections follow a proportional representation system. This means that seats are distributed based on the share of the votes received by each party.
The polling station will open at 9am (11:00 GMT) and close at 8pm (22:00 GMT) local time. Experts spoken by Al Jazeera said voter turnout is expected to be around 70-75%, despite the country’s large and remote landscape.
Given the relatively few voters, initial results are usually available within hours of the poll closing, confirmed, and final results were usually announced the following day.
Which party is the main and what do they represent?
Several political parties have challenged the election. While some have similar views on the need for economic development, each party still retains its own vision of what Greenland’s future should entail.
Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA): The leftist party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Mute Bullup Egede, holds 11 seats in Parliament. It supports Greenland’s independence and suggests that there may be a referendum in the coming years, but this is not necessarily the case in this election cycle. Siumut: Siumut, a well-established party who has previously led the Congress, is currently opposed. It also supports independence, but supports a more gradual approach with a greater emphasis on economic development. Naleraq: A strong, non-independent party focused on Greenland’s cultural identity and self-determination, seeking full sovereignty. Demokraatit: A central right party that prioritizes economic growth, education and healthcare. It also advocates for independence, but, like some other parties, it emphasizes the need for economic stability as a prerequisite. Atassut: A liberal Conservative party that supports maintaining a strong ties with Denmark. It believes that the current setup can support the island’s economic growth as Greenland enjoys some autonomy under Denmark.
Important Issues
Independence
This remains the most important and comprehensive theme of this election, with some parties claiming greater autonomy and others calling for a more gradual transition.
Trump has repeatedly called for the island to be acquired, and told Congress last week that doing so would improve domestic and international security.
His comments were quickly countered by Prime Minister Egede, who declared, “Greenland is ours.”
Some experts believe Trump’s remarks have rekindled debates over independence from Denmark, which is paying annual grants to the island.
“There remains a view on how quickly independence can happen and whether it should happen,” Jennifer Spence, director of the Arctic Initiative at the Belfer Centre for International Science and International Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
“But overall, I think that (the Trump story of taking over the island) will stimulate the Greenlanders with their desire to communicate with the world they want, and ultimately achieve full independence,” she said.
Others suggest that the threat of a US acquisition actually strengthened its relationship with Greenland’s Copenhagen.
Richard Powell, professor of Arctic Studies at Cambridge University, said independence remains a “widely popular long-term goal,” but Trump’s latest intervention “consolidated Greenland’s future within the Kingdom of Denmark for at least decades.”
But ultimately, “the Greenland government has the authority to call an independence referendum if it wishes,” Powell said. “It’s not in Denmark or the US.”
Ebbe Volquardsen, a professor of cultural history at the University of Greenland, said that the majority of Greenlanders have long supported full independence.
“This is not a new development,” Volquardsen told Al Jazeera. “But what’s new is the growing international attention in Greenland,” as Trump began to show interest in bringing an island under US control.
As the island’s geopolitical values ​​are now “unmistakably clear,” Greenland’s negotiating position was strengthened in dialogue with Denmark in order to gain greater autonomy with Denmark, Volquardsen said.
The discussion is not about whether Greenland should ultimately declare independence, but rather about “how and when to achieve this goal.”
Economic Development:
Greenland’s economy relies heavily on the fisheries and the financial support of Denmark.
Some parties argue that expanding industries such as mining, tourism and resource extraction could help Greenland become more financially independent.
Greenland’s rich sediments of rare earth minerals and other natural resources have attracted attention from global power. “We estimate that 25% of the remaining rare earth elements and important minerals in the world are in Greenland,” Powell has become a potential player in the global supply chain.
However, it is not easy to create minerals and minify central elements of Greenland’s economic future. So far, only a handful of companies have invested in the mining sector. The extraction industry is also opposed to Greenland’s indigenous peoples.
“Due to the high difficult conditions for mining in Greenland, there are also great questions about the economic viability of extracting these resources,” Spence said. “We have questions about the environmental risks and consequences of trying to access these minerals for Greenland, as well as the health, social and cultural risks of Greenland.”
However, according to Volquardsen, Greenland is in a “unique moment of opportunity.” Many of the islands are recognized as opportunities to redefine relations with Denmark and build new international partnerships.
“As global awareness of Greenland’s geopolitical significance grows, so does investment interest, particularly in the mining sector, which is important for the country’s economic future,” he said.
How will elections affect diplomatic relations in Greenland?
Elections could play a key role in reshaping Greenland’s approach to international partnerships.
Powell said Greenland will likely continue to strengthen its ties with Denmark, while also expanding its economic ties with the US, Iceland and Canada.
“Elections reinforce the international principle that this is Greenland’s choice. Elections are a way for people to hear democratic voices,” he said.
Spence believes the outcome will provide the world with a “sense of pace that the Greenlanders want to seek full independence from the Kingdom of Denmark” and an approach they use to respond to the US interest in the island.
She said it will also highlight who they will work with to promote interest and policy priorities.
How much does Denmark control Greenland?
Greenland is now an independent Danish territory and has gradually increased its autonomy from Denmark over the years.
Limited self-manipulation was granted in 1979, and in 2009 a wider self-activity continued.
Today, Greenland manages most of the domestic issues, including police and resource management, while Denmark still oversees foreign policy and defense issues.
Powell pointed out that Danish financial support is also important for Greenland.
Copenhagen will grant Greenland an annual block grant of around $570 million. This is more than half of Greenland’s total budget and is 20% of the island’s gross domestic product (GDP).
With strong voter involvement, the election results are widely expected to provide insight into Greenland’s political path.
However, according to Volquardsen, “radical change is not expected.”
Competing parties agree on many important issues, he said, and a complete change in government is unlikely.
Dialogues between Greenland and Denmark are also expected to resume after the election, Voljarsen said.
The “goal” is to give Greenland a greater empowerment and diversify its position within a broader network of trading partners, he said. “Strengthening cooperation with Western neighbors, especially the US and Canada, is a natural step in this direction.”
Why is Trump so interested in Greenland?
Greenland’s strategic location and resource potential has attracted Trump’s attention.
In 2019, Trump first expressed his interest in purchasing Greenland, citing its strategic importance and wealth of resources. This interest persisted.
Greenland offers the shortest route from North America to Europe, giving the US the strategic advantage of its early warning systems for military and ballistic missiles.
The US also maintains air force bases in Greenland and is interested in expanding its military presence by placing radars in the waters connecting Greenland, Iceland and the UK.
These waters are the gateway to Russian and Chinese ships that Washington is trying to monitor. The US also wants to prevent China from controlling the island and the Arctic more generally.
In recent years, Russia has expanded its naval presence, deployed missile systems and has stepped up weapons testing in the region.
Currently, all five Congressional parties say they don’t want Greenland to become part of the United States.
A poll released last month found that 85% of Greenlanders are opposed to the idea, with almost half saying they view Trump’s interest as a threat.
Volquardsen said one of the most controversial questions about the campaign is whether Greenland will actively engage with the US and when should they participate.
“Some politicians advocate for early discussions to clarify our intentions and explore potential negotiations that could benefit both parties,” he said. “Others consider this a risk…and they argue that Greenland should instead strengthen existing partnerships between Denmark and Europe.”
