By policy options. Originally published under policy options
March 14, 2025
(Deliverable ICIs in version Française)
Canada is facing an economic attack backed by an existential threat to its sovereignty, and it has proven that it needs options. One idea that pops around is to become the 28th member of the European Union.
Why is it not good? After the US exile, Europe remains the only club of liberal democracy and multilateralism, with two core Canadian values. Thanks to its history and contribution to NATO, it is a prosperous region with trusted allies. Becoming a 28th EU member state rather than the 51st US state would serve as a hedge of economic security while maintaining political sovereignty.
Nowadays, Canadians are naturally hesitant to join organizations with a solid, frequent exile, with a center of gravity throughout the Atlantic. However, there are still strong cases to apply for membership, even if you have never joined the EU. When you start a conversation with Brussels, you have a small full membership and as you get much closer to Europe, you pave the way for a bit more removal from the US.
The long road to becoming an EU member
On paper, Canada is the perfect candidate for EU membership. Our country easily meets two of the three so-called Copenhagen criteria used to evaluate candidates for expansion. Like other member states, Canada is a democracy governed by a free market economy (first standard) and a respect for law and human rights (second standard).
The third standard is more difficult and requires at least 10 years of bilateral negotiations. This is called Acquis Communautaire (French is one of the official languages of the EU). To become a full member, Canada must adopt all the supranational laws passed since the EU’s founding in 1957. There are many of them and there is little chance of cutting an exception.
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All 27 EU member states must also grant unanimous approval if Canadians want to commence such negotiations. At every stage of the process, any of them may cease or refuse negotiations on any aspect. For example, agriculture or financial services. However, when compared to application files in other countries like Ukraine, they would welcome a wealthy and stable democracy with a national budget in line with EU fiscal rules.
Meaning of EU membership
Adoption of Acquis Communautaire includes social rights such as up to 48 hours (including overtime), environmental regulations such as reach (registration, evaluation, approval, chemical restrictions), and economic rules such as banking alliances. Overall, it means upgrading our social, economic and environmental rights. More controversial is perhaps necessary for Canada to replace supply management with a common agricultural policy, contribute to CO2 emission trading schemes, and apply EU trade tariffs to third parties (including the US).
Under the line, EU membership also involves free movement of people (there is no need to show a passport between Montreal and Paris) and substitution of the Canadian dollar by the euro. On some issues, decisions from the European Court of Justice will replace the decisions of the Supreme Court. In fact, joining the EU requires a complete overhaul of institutional, policy and regulatory landscapes.
Tall orders! However, please note that Canadians will elect representatives of the European Parliament and the European Commission. Our leaders will be seated at the Council of Europe and appoint European judges. Allies such as France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany have the opportunity to shape the outcome. The EU is much more decentralized than the US. No European military, European FBI, European taxes, European mail, European social security. And, as Brexit showed, everyone can leave without a civil war if they want. Canada will become a part of a key club without losing much of its sovereignty.
Serious Disability
Certainly, EU membership has geographical, economic and political obstacles. Canada is not on the European continent. This is, in principle, a condition for joining. But even more importantly, we still do little with Europe compared to the US, but diversifying trade is precisely looking for options, but we do not deny that the main force of attraction is south of the border.
In my view, the main obstacle is political. On the one hand, there is no doubt that Trump’s attacks encouraged Canadians to consider options they had never considered. In an Abacus data survey conducted from February 20-25, 2025, 46% of Canadians supported participation in the EU, while 29% said they opposed it. Although about a quarter of respondents were unaware or uncertain, that is an astonishing number of questions that have never been on the agenda before.
Meanwhile, as my colleagues and I documented in the Brexit context, Canadians are highly biased in their attitude towards Europe. While liberals and Eastern Canadians are obsessed with the continental Europe and the EU, conservatives and Western Canadians feel closer to the UK (and, according to Abacus’s survey, the US). Joining the EU without the UK risks dividing the country, but this is not what we need right now. Therefore, other options for settlements should be considered.
Full membership alternatives
Some countries have very close ties with the EU without membership. One is in the UK. It left the EU in 2020 after 47 years of marriage and is now bound by a new trade and cooperation agreement. The other is Switzerland, which allows people to access internal markets and free movement of them to Europeans. Finally, there is the Norwegian case of Iceland and as a member of the so-called European economic territory, enjoying almost all the benefits of EU membership except voting rights. All of these scenarios go beyond the comprehensive economic and trade agreements (CETA) currently held in the EU. Each has its advantages and disadvantages.
The UK scenario is the easiest to follow, but the least transformative. With CETA and NATO, you already have the same rights as the UK in the EU. Partial market access for quasi-free trade and services, participation in Allied Command, and participation in several EU programmes, such as Horizon Europe for Research.
On many political and diplomatic issues, Canada has long been considered a like-minded and honored European country. Enhanced strategic partnership agreements can institutionalize the desire to do more together, including areas of security and defense, digital governance, and climate change. The main advantage of the UK scenario is symbolic. It shows that we cast our fate in Europe, not in the US
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Norwegian scenarios are the most substantial, but also the most costly. Canada needs to contribute to the EU budget as part of its GDP (approximately 1%). From car headlight standards to professional qualification recognition, you need to implement most of the EU regulations. We do this all without a formal belonging to the EU and without representatives from European Parliaments, committees, councils and courts. This is not ideal from a democratic perspective. However, our companies have access to single markets, including gas, oil, beef, and maple syrup, with fewer regulatory or tariff barriers than they faced with the US under the NAFTA (now the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA).
The Swiss scenario is the only scenario that allows deep bilateral negotiations and favorable outcomes for both parties. Therefore, it is the most complicated to implement. The two parties are on equal footing and everything is negotiable, so the lectures tend to be dragged forever, and the interim deals can always be challenged. Some EU conditions may be difficult to resist, such as compliance with more ambitious environmental regulations. But at the end of the day, each side decides what they are willing to give. In contrast to Switzerland, the landlocked country, Canada may not want to allow free movement of people across the Atlantic. But we may want Arctic security and defense cooperation.
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At this stage there is no harm in applying for EU membership. This sovereignty gesture is very symbolic. Donald Trump shows us that we are not alone and that we have a choice if he decides to strangle our economy, intervene in our politics, or do something bad.
As a political scientist specializing in the EU, I am not at all certain that Canada and the EU negotiations will end or that Canadians would like to succeed in them. The probability is long and you don’t have to be obligated to the end. After all, Norway was applied to the EU in 1962 and did not participate. In the meantime, however, by initiating negotiations on either joining or ambitious Canadian-EU deals, you can explore the abundant opportunities to free Canada from American dependence.
This article will be first published in Policy Options, and will be republished here under a Creative Commons license.
