Airline capacity between Canada and the US was reduced until October 2025, with the most significant reductions occurring during peak trip months in July and August. Passenger Reservations in Canada – US routes are currently down 70% compared to the same period last year.
The latest weekly updates to OAG schedule data suggest that airline capabilities between Canada and the US have not changed at all during the summer season. However, if we look closely over the last few weeks, we see a sharp decline in airline capabilities and bookings before and after.
Planned aviation capabilities from Canada to the US
Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries submitted on March 3 and the two countries submitted on March 24, the table below shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries until the end of October. The most notable cuts are in July and August (months of two peak summer seasons), where airlines can cut by around 3.5%.
Westjet turns to Europe
Adjusting short-scheduled notifications is always difficult, especially for summer seasons where it may not be easy to find slot availability in alternative markets. However, since the beginning of March, Westjet has added 114 flights to Europe to actively place its capabilities outside the US. Dublin and Edinburgh are the two airports that benefit most from these capacity changes.
The limited slot availability at major European airports may be part of the reason Air Canada is not following West Jet. Air Canada typically has a larger percentage of traffic connected across the entire network, but many of them connect to one of the Star Alliance partners on the US hub, making it more difficult to manage when you cancel a flight.
US to Canada: Transfer Reservation Breakdown
Despite airline schedule changes and capabilities being redirected to other markets, future flight bookings between Canada and the US have emerged more troubling trends from future demand data.
Using forward booking data from major GDS suppliers, we compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded during this summer season. The decline is impressive – bookings have fallen by more than 70% from each month to the end of September. This sharp decline suggests that travelers are likely refraining from reservations due to the continued uncertainty surrounding wider trade disputes.
For all scheduled airlines operating between the US and Canada, declining consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned trips are of concern, especially when made with such large markets and such short notices. Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences has once again influenced the aviation industry, in addition to what had already become a softening market. For those still planning on travel, there may be airlines offering particularly cheap airfares for the coming months as they are trying to stimulate demand, but for airlines it is tense as the traditional “snowbird” market, especially from Canada to the US, could have a negative impact next year, especially if the situation doesn’t improve quickly.
