mOsko’s immeasurable military mobilization clearly does not aim exclusively for Ukraine. Unless Vladimir Putin accepts a ceasefire with meaningful security guarantees, the war will never end. If anything, we could see the expansion of Russian invasion beyond Ukraine. The gloomy reality is that Europe is still facing an unprecedented threat, and despite signs of Ukraine’s progress in speaking in Jeddah, we are facing it.
What’s even worse, we must now stand against the United States, which is opposed to us. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump appear to share plans: regimes like Vichy in Ukraine and continental Europe are divided into territories of influence. Most European masses feel this. European leaders also get it. They are beginning to act.
Their response forms the basis for a different kind of Europe than we have known for decades. Europe internally sealed peace (mainly through close economic and financial interdependence). Externally, its security was largely guaranteed by the US via NATO. Through the Defense Alliance, European countries acted as loyal transatlantic allies. They allowed Washington to start with the US defense industry and earn significant benefits from the treaty. The Europeans also followed Washington obedience with their folly, including defeating Saddam Hussein, including the Iraqi invasion in 2003.
All along, the EU has had a slow, difficult-to-use room. I wasn’t in a hurry. It was wise to build a “common European home” in a painstaking manner, gradually unite common interests, and believe that a common European identity would slowly emerge.
However, wars in Europe, and the reliability of the United States as an ally, mean that we must accept that Europe has disappeared after 1945 and after 1989.
But a new Europe is being born. And it’s easier to say what it is than what it is. It’s not the EU, it’s not something we’ve taken for granted for a long time. The 27 Country unions are simply not equipped to make decisions at the speed and level of ambition needed to confront the dramatic, life-death, rapidly changing geopolitical and security moments that citizens face. Additionally, the EU now includes Trojan horses such as Hungarian Victor Orban, populist nationalist Robert Fico and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
This is why we saw European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron and Kiel’s Stage, become dominant voices, shifting into crisis mode and calling emergency summits in their respective capitals. The invitation list is carefully curated. But eurosceptics, including those in the Trump administration, who hope this means that the dysfunctional EU has been rendered unrelatedly, are doing well.
The birth of Europe is not completely separate from the EU either. The Brussels Agency, particularly the European Commission’s executive committee, the Bullock, is deeply involved in the construction of a new Europe. Last week, a groundbreaking easing of eurozone fiscal rules will allow for a significant increase in spending on “Reimm Europe”, the establishment of new financial instruments to support Europe’s defense, the completion of the EU single market, and a push for a larger general EU budget, and better adjustments to continent-facing strategic priorities. It’s no wonder Trump is trying to avoid ties with Ursula von der Reyen. That’s precisely because the committee is still important.
The new Europe is not NATO either. It’s not because the Europeans turned their backs. But the US has. The US currently has over 100,000 military personnel deployed in Europe, 10,000 in Poland alone, and 40 military bases across the continent. From and possibly beyond Eastern Europe, there could be a partial (or full) withdrawal of the US military.
And given the reliance on trust and belief, between allies and enemies, Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (which says an attack on one is all attacks) is real, and the question today is whether NATO still exists. Over the past decade, at least there have been doubts as to whether the US has actually defended a small European country under attack. But doubt was sufficient to act as a deterrent. Do you have any doubts about Trump not coming to rescue if a small (or large) European country is attacked today?
However, the new Europe born cannot be characterized as simply “not NATO”. NATO members outside the EU play an important role. First and foremost, not only the UK, but Norway, Canada and Türkiye are all expected to help provide security assurances for Ukraine. In many ways, even different political sensibilities and interests, they all share the sense that Putin Trump’s convergence in Ukraine (and beyond) represents a threat.
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So here is Europe, not the EU. It’s NATO, not NATO. It is a “coalition of will,” united by a shared sense of threat, urgency and purpose, but it cannot have the AA’s only leadership figure.
While leaders of a country are not accepted by other countries in the Union, whether it is the EU or NATO, the form of an institution represents some, not all, of the countries involved.
This is a new Europe and is coordinated by leaders such as Macron, Priority, German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz and Poland’s Donald Task. They share a perception of threats and a willingness to deal with them. After all, European countries are all put together, and are the richest and most powerful in the world. The European Commission, led by von der Reyen, can play an important supporting role. Savings in Ukraine are a necessary condition to secure Europe. Can they succeed? If they can gather just a small portion of Winston Churchill’s strategic vision, Voldy Mie Zelensky’s courage, and Barack Obama’s hopes.
Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist
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