Climate whiplash has already hit major cities around the world, and as the climate crisis intensifies, it is causing fatal shaking between extreme humidity and dry weather, the report reveals.
Dozens of cities, including Lucknow, Madrid and Riyadh, have suffered from “flips” over the past 20 years, switching from dry extremes to wet extremes. The report analyzed the 100 most populous cities and 12 selected cities, finding that 95% of them exhibit clear trends towards wet or dry weather.
Climate changes in urban climate can cause floods and droughts to worsen and impact citizens, destroying access to clean water, sanitation and food, moving communities and spreading disease. Cities with already poor water infrastructure, such as Karachi and Khartoum, suffer the most.
While cities around the world are affected, data show trends in several regions, struggling with Europe, the already enclosed Arabian Peninsula and much of the United States, cities in South and Southeast Asia experience larger downpours.
This analysis shows the climate disruptions brought into urban areas due to human-induced global heating. Too little or too much water is the cause of 90% of climate disasters. With over 4.4 billion people living in cities, the climate crisis was already known to have overcharged individual extreme weather disasters on Earth.
The rise in temperatures driven by fossil fuel pollution can exacerbate both floods and droughts, as warm air can take up more water vapor. This means that the air can suck more water from the ground during hot and dry periods, but when it rains it releases a more intense downpour.
“Our research shows that climate change is dramatically different all over the world,” says Professor Katerina Michael Ryde of the University of Bristol, UK. Her co-author, Professor Michael Singer at Cardiff University, described the pattern as “global we.”
“Most places we’ve seen are changing in some way, but in a way that’s not always predictable,” Singer said. “And considering we see the world’s biggest city, there’s really a fair number of people involved.”
According to Michaelides, dealing with climate whiplash and flips in cities is extremely difficult. Many cities already face problems with water supply, sewage and flood protection as their populations expand rapidly. However, global heating is supercharged, and the aging infrastructure of rich countries is designed for climates that no longer exist, and is even more extreme and extreme, making it even more difficult to establish the much-needed infrastructure in low-income countries.
The researchers have worked in Nairobi, Kenya, one of the cities suffering from climate whiplash. “People were struggling with no water and failing crops, dead livestock, droughts really affecting their lives and lives for years,” Michaelido said. “The next thing that happens is too much rain, everything gets flooded, they lose more livestock, the city’s infrastructure is overwhelmed, the water is contaminated, and people get sick afterwards.”
“The global ‘day zero’ threat is looming,” said Sol Oyuela, executive director of NGO Wateraid, who commissioned the analysis. What happens when 4 billion people already facing water shortages reach that point of destruction and reach water-dependent food, health, energy, nature, economy and security? ”
“Now is the time for urgent group action, so that our communities can recover from disasters and be prepared for what the future holds. This will make the world a safer place for everyone,” Oiela said.
The savage wildfire in Los Angeles in January was an example of a single whiplash event with a wet period that spurred vegetation growth, burning fires when hot and dry weather continued. Such events are increasing due to human-induced global heating.
The new analysis by Michaelides and Singer has been much broader, examining the wet and dry extremes of 112 major cities over the past 40 years.
Seventeen cities around the world are suffering from climate whiplash, and are found to suffer from extreme frequencies, both wet and dry. The biggest whiplash was seen in Hangzhou, China, in Texas, Jakarta and Dallas, a massive Indonesian country. Other whiplash cities include Baghdad, Bangkok, Melbourne and Nairobi. Wet and drier extremes make it difficult for cities to prepare and recover, and make it difficult for them to undermine their lives and livelihoods.
The analysis shows that 24 cities have seen dramatic climate reversals this century. The sharpest switches from wet to dry are in Cairo, Madrid and Riyadh, with California’s Hong Kong and San Jose also in the top 10. Long-term droughts can lead to water shortages and lead to blackouts in food supply and electricity, where hydroelectric power is dependent.
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The sharpest switch from dry to wet was in Lucknow and Surat, India, and in Nigeria’s second city, Kano. Other cities with wet flips were Bogota, Hong Kong and Tehran. Heavy rain can cause flash floods, destroy homes and roads, and when sanitation systems are overwhelmed, it can spread fatal waterborne diseases such as cholera and dysentery.
The researchers also assessed the level of social vulnerability and infrastructure quality in the city. The cities with the greatest climate risks and the places facing the highest vulnerability and therefore the greatest dangers were Khartoum in Sudan, Faisalabad in Pakistan and Amman in Jordan.
Karachi, also in Pakistan, is highly regarded for its vulnerability, experiencing wet and extremes. Heavy rains in 2022 destroyed the family home of Fischer Mohammad Yunis in Ibrahim Heideri, the city’s waterfront district.
“We had no shelter so we spent the day and night completely soaked in the rain,” he said. “The weather affects everything. When heavy rains, our kids get sick. But there’s not enough (clean) water. Our area is broken. Houses near the drainage system will collapse due to floods. When floods come, the walls will fall apart. If we had enough money, we wouldn’t live here.”
Even cities with less severe climate change showed clear trends in almost all of them. The dry places in the last 40 years included Paris, Los Angeles, Cape Town and Rio de Janeiro. Many of the wet people are in South Asia, including Mumbai, Lahore and Kabul.
Researchers also discovered 11 cities where the number of extreme wet or dry months has decreased over the past 20 years, including Nagoya, Japan, Lusaka in Zambia, and Guangzhou in China.
The overall findings of the new study are consistent with the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This includes areas with increased torrential rainfall and areas with increased drought, and areas with both increases, Professor Sonia Seneviraton of Oetzzurich, Switzerland coordinated the extreme events of the Ipaimet Memo chapter.
“A warm tenth and life we know will become increasingly at risk due to extreme climates such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain,” she said.
The singer said: It will probably lead to a more realistic conversation about supporting climate change adaptation. It brings compassion and understanding of the challenges people face, and can’t afford it rather than simply say it. ”
Methodology
Researchers analyzed the changing climate of cities using standard indexes (SPEIs) that combine evaporation and evaporation monthly from 1983 to 2023.
To assess changes over the 40 years, the data were split into two 21 years. Cities that experienced at least 12 months of one type of extreme climate (wet or dry) and at least 12 months of other types of extreme climates in 21 years were classified as having an upside-down climate. Cities that had both extreme wet and extreme dryness for at least five months during the second period were classified as having developed climate whiplash. Overall wet or dryness trends were determined from all 42 years of data.
The population data used to determine the 100 most populous cities is based on population density rather than urban management boundaries, and therefore a genuine reflection of the size of the city. Social vulnerability was measured using standard human development indexes, and water and waste infrastructure data was obtained from a global dataset published in 2022.
